Liam ‘Akiba’ Wright
Kamala Harris’s odds surged to 45% on Polymarket following Donald Trump’s appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ) panel. Polymarket, the prominent crypto betting platform, has seen a significant influx of wagers due to the turbulent US presidential election, prompting the platform to upgrade its infrastructure. According to Bloomberg, the platform added MoonPay to handle the increased volume of bets and open on-ramps into crypto.
Polymarket’s US elections bet volume has hit $467 million, up from $364 million last week, reflecting heightened interest in the Trump vs. Harris race. The platform allows users to bet on various outcomes, including the US presidential election, and has attracted significant attention recently due to Harris’s likely Democratic nomination and an assassination attempt on Trump. Despite Harris’s recent gains, large-scale bettors on Polymarket still overwhelmingly favor Trump, who retains a significant lead with a 55% chance of winning the election.
However, Trump’s lead has been cut massively from 60% over the past 24 hours and a high of 72% on July 16. Similarly, Harris’ chance opened at just 37% on July 31 before rising to 43% as of press time, her highest chance since joining the race. The last time the Democrats had such a high price per share on Polymarket was May 16, when Trump accepted the debate with Joe Biden, leading to a surge in bets in Trump’s favor.
Outside of crypto prediction markets, Harris’s campaign has also been bolstered by recent polls showing her making gains on Trump in crucial swing states. A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found Harris leading Trump 53%-42% in Michigan, while other polls show her either leading or tied with Trump in states like Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. This polling data may have contributed to the surge in Harris’s betting odds on platforms like Polymarket, where the dynamic and heavily contested election season is reflected in the platform’s interactive maps and trending market analysis.
However, while polling may have been a factor, the timing seems to align more closely with Trump’s performance in front of a crowd of black journalists, where he questioned Harris’ heritage and claimed to have been invited under “false pretenses” after being challenged on his rhetoric toward the black community.
Founder of SkyBridge Capital and former Trump press secretary Anthony Scaramucci felt Trump’s performance would lead to a drop in his poll numbers, commenting,
“Not over yet. Trump may leave the race. Just watch his poll numbers plummet and see what happens.”
General Partner at Van Buren Capital, Scott Johnsson, commented on the correlated drop in Bitcoin’s price to $63,700, saying,
“The irony of the Trump speech is now the entire crypto industry is completely correlated to this one crypto event contract.”
Bitcoin has recovered to $64,300 as of press time following yesterday’s FOMC meeting and the decline in Trump’s odds. Trump is seen as the more Bitcoin-friendly candidate, and his odds of winning the presidency seem to align with the price of Bitcoin at present.
