Henry Kanapi
A prominent analytics firm says Bitcoin (BTC) is about to give off a reading that previously signaled the start of a big rally for the crypto king.
Santiment says on the social media platform X that it is keeping a close watch on Bitcoin’s 30-day and 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV).
The MVRV is the ratio of a crypto asset’s market capitalization relative to its realized capitalization or the value of all the coins at the price they were bought. When the MVRV value drops below zero, it indicates that the asset is oversold as traders who bought it at a certain time frame are witnessing losses.
According to Santiment, traders who accumulated BTC 30 days ago are in the red while those who purchased BTC 365 days ago are close to hitting negative territory. The analytics firm notes that the last time Bitcoin’s 30-day and 365-day MVRV flashed red was in March 2023 – just before BTC ignited a strong uptrend from $20,000 to $74,000.
“One of the top signals for all of crypto that Santiment values is when both Bitcoin’s 30-day and 365-day MVRV are in negative territory. This is when there is mathematical validation that you are buying relative to other traders’ pain.
If you had bought the last time both of these lines were in negative territory, your return on BTC would be at +132%.”
The analytics firm adds that the number of non-empty Bitcoin wallets has dropped by 566,000 since June 15th, suggesting that hundreds of thousands of holders have unloaded their BTC in fear of seeing losses.
“Patient bulls should be pleased with this, as self-liquidating wallets from impatient non-believers is a sign of FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt)-causing bottoms, just like we saw in January [2024].”
Lastly, the analytics firm highlights that crowd sentiment for BTC is at a one-year low, increasing the probability of a bounce.
“Bitcoin sentiment among traders on X, Reddit, Telegram, 4Chan, and BitcoinTalk are showing the most bearish narratives this week in a year. When the crowd shows FUD at this level, the chances of a rebound to catch the majority off guard is at its peak.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $57,881.
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