Hristina Vasileva
Altcoins looked like an afterthought for a while, but Bitcoin’s breakout above $81,000 showed the market still favors these riskier categories. With top altcoins inching closer to their all-time highs, talks of an altcoin market have grown.
For most of 2024, altcoins have drifted sideways as risk-seeking investors have stayed away from these tokens. Most altcoins have not regained their all-time highs, despite a brief rally in March and April. however, the altcoin market has shown signs of reawakening after Bitcoin (BTC) rallied above $81,000.
Most of the leading assets are a small rally from their all-time high. Others are still between 2X and 3X away from making up lost ground.
Altcoin markets shift direction quickly, and with some of the funds flowing into altcoins, the Altcoin Season Index has risen to 37 points. The recent rally is responsible for the rapid index recovery.
The biggest challenge for altcoins is that when BTC slides, they often suffer even more significant losses. However, recoveries hold significant upside for some tokens and coins, in addition to sufficient market depth.
ETH and SOL show readiness to regain peak
Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) may move slower, but they are seen as key to the larger altcoin market. ETH needs a 47% rally from the current price of $3,200 to reach its all-time peak above $4,700. While this growth is small in terms of meme token growth potential, ETH can also absorb more profit-taking, hence the drive back into blue chips.
SOL is already within a small distance of its $250 peak, after trading above $207. The SOL ecosystem remained strong in 2024, setting records in October due to meme token trading.
However, not all platform coins have put in strong performances. TRON (TRX) stalled at $0.16, just a cent below its all-time high. TRX has been rising gradually based on token burns and it has not seen any significant rallies.
Binance Coin (BNB) recovered to $620, but its smaller ecosystem was reflected, which never fully recovered from the crash of NFT and gaming in 2022.
Will XRP and ADA join the altcoins rally?
The group of tokens yet to retest their all-time highs include Cardano (ADA), Ripple (XRP), and older former stars like Avalanche (AVAX), Chainlink (LINK), and Polkadot (DOT). The main difference between these two groups of altcoins is that AVAX, LINK and DOT are tied to multiple products, liquidity hubs and apps.
ADA and XRP, on the other hand, have not stayed up with the latest app trends as they continue to exist as speculative assets.
Still, this did not stop ADA from rallying by more than 80% to $0.58 in the past week. XRP also reached exactly $0.58, with both assets among the top 10 tokens, due to their large supply. Both ADA and XRP are still used for speculative trading, though some communities avoid them as long-time underperformers with no utility.
At the same time, AVAX, LINK, and DOT are tied to useful utility products but lack the community energy to sustain another rally. All of the projects have built up their ecosystems and remain key tools in the crypto space, but their tokens still underperform.
DOGE gives overbought signals
Not all altcoins are prepared for big rallies. Some of the recently hot tokens are giving overbought signals. Dogecoin (DOGE), the original meme coin, is among the most overbought. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for altcoins puts DOGE near 80 points. At this price range, it is unknown if DOGE is rising on short-term trading strategies, or if it has entered another stage of price discovery.
It is possible DOGE has matched BTC’s rally since BTC is also showing similar levels of overbought signals. However, in BTC’s case, more growth is expected just as a new high is a short-term possibility.
ADA has also entered the overbought zone after its outsized rally, raising questions about holding its price level. Most altcoins are in a neutral position while remaining mixed with meme tokens for their speculative potential. Some of the more liquid meme tokens, like NEIROETH, show the least signs of being overbought.
ETH and SOL stand in the “strong” range of coins, heating up and preparing for a rally. The category also includes ENA, ONDO, as well as older coins like Litecoin (LTC).
