Hristina Vasileva
Bitcoin (BTC) has a 67% probability to reach $95,000 according to Polymarket. The betting market is not so decisive on BTC breaking into six-digit prices before the end of the year.
Bitcoin (BTC) bets on reaching $95,000 are accelerating, but the confidence is not as high for the $100K level. On Polymarket, the next closest price milestone has a weight of 67%, while other close price ranges have progressively smaller odds. The bet on $95K also declined over time, down to 64%.
Another more volatile market bets on $90,000 BTC by November 22. The market maxed out around 66%, but sank quickly to 54%. The bets turned more volatile as market pressure sent BTC back to 89,691.35. Soon after the dip, BTC recovered above $91,700, immediately affecting the bet trading.
Polymarket remains a speculative website, relying on locking in gains rather than irrational convictions. This time around, there are no iconic whales with large positions. In the case of BTC, most whales are on the side of the bearish bet. The biggest BTC bearish bet belongs to Scottilicious, an account with $14M in volumes and $334K in profits. The market for BTC bets is on a smaller scale, and extremely responsive to short-term market shifts.
This time around, most of the smaller markets are generally in agreement with Polymarket. Kalshi is the other Web3 platform with active BTC bets, though with a much lower liquidity for each market. New markets are also coming online, with Bodega Cardano preparing to launch a betting pair on the chance of BTC moving above $100K by January. ecently, the ‘yes’ token for BTC above $100K by the end of 2024 shot up to 61%.
Kalshi’s market also had 62% odds of BTC breaking above $100K in January, again joining the cautiously bullish trend with a prevalence of the price expansion scenario. However, all of the markets remain volatile, with the price of the ‘yes’ token fluctuating on a short time frame. The more liquid the market, the more balanced the prediction. For low-liquidity prediction platforms like Futuur, it was easy to sway the weight of the ‘yes’ token to 79%, with no counter-buying.
Does betting predict better than data and algorithms?
There are multiple tools to predict the price of BTC, through short-term metrics or macroeconomic trends. Prediction markets rose to the forefront for being better predictors of election results, by gauging the true sentiment of a pool of traders.
In the case of BTC, prediction market results are in the same direction as those of other platforms. The CoinCodex prediction is in line with the BTC momentum toward $100K. The algorithms of CoinCodex set up the BTC price at $100,817 with a five-day time frame. The algorithms predict a breakout above the $110K range in the next three months.
The methods of the Changelly brokerage service see BTC extending its trading to reach $100K by November 23. The Changelly prediction is not bound to any duty to report, and is an automated estimation based on a set of data. The prediction extends the market trend to date, suggesting a gradual price increase in the coming weeks. The Changelly tool has a bullish outlook in the short term, built on the principle of market signals.
BTC is still far from the long-term Coin Price Forecast prediction. With 2024 coming to a close, the Coin Price Forecast prediction was for BTC to reach $123,599.
According to the Rainbow Chart model, BTC still has a way to go until the market overheats. The model does not set a time frame, but is now in an accumulation stage at a higher range.
Not all metrics agree – contrary to the Rainbow Chart, the Market Milk indicator points to BTC being overbought. At the same time, BTC sees continued inflows and renewed retail interest, leading to increased volatility.
At this point, it is uncertain if the betting markets also reflect the data and signals, or rely on other factors, including the simple trading of ‘yes’ and ‘no’ tokens. Additionally, liquid prediction markets may be a way to hedge other bets on the direction of BTC.
