Rudy Fares
The Bitcoin price has recovered somewhat in recent weeks after the massive gains in January and early February. The price recently rose back above the $23,000 mark, but the rise has lost some momentum. But there could actually be a scenario in which Bitcoin reaches its all-time high as early as 2023. Why could this be realistic?
How has the Bitcoin price moved so far in 2023?
In 2023, the Bitcoin price has risen sharply so far. At the turn of the year 2023, the rate was still $16,500. The price started to rise in the first few days and continued in the following weeks. The price was already able to rise to the $23,000 mark at the end of January.
In February, after falling in the first few days of February, the Bitcoin price was temporarily even able to rise above $25,000. After the Bitcoin price could not break the resistance, the price fell back below $ 23,000. In the last few days, it has risen above this value again. So if we look again at figure 1, we can see how prices went back on a strong uptrend…reassuring!
Can Bitcoin reach its all-time high in 2023?
After the difficult year 2022, the last price increases give hope for a very successful year 2023. We have to keep in mind that the price was also able to rise sharply at times during the last bear market in the second year of this bear market, 2019. But is it possible to reach the Bitcoin all-time high in 2023?
Bitcoin’s all-time high is currently $68,790. In order to reach this value, the Bitcoin price would have to increase by a factor of 3 at the moment. A new all-time high is usually only reached in the bull market, more precisely in the last big bull run before the start of a new bear market.
Therefore, reaching Bitcoin’s all-time high in 2023 would be an extraordinary event, which so far does not fit the course of Bitcoin cycles.
Can Bitcoin reach its all-time high EARLIER than expected?
Bitcoin’s price history does not suggest that we will reach a new all-time high again anytime soon. But there could be a special situation in this cycle. For that, we would have to assume that the current all-time high was lower than normal in the last cycle. This is supported by the fact that the Bitcoin rise in 2021 was severely interrupted by the mining ban in China, which triggered a strong crash for a few months in the middle of the bull run.
Furthermore, the Bitcoin price could also have fallen very quickly and sharply from its all-time high. The reason may have been the increases in key interest rates by the FED and ECB, which strengthened FIAT money. These two factors could mean that the Bitcoin all-time high can be reached much faster.
The stock-to-flow model, which became known in recent years through the Twitter account PlanB, shows that the Bitcoin price has been massively below the average for the current cycle in recent months. It seems logical that the price would see an upward adjustment even before the halving.
When will Bitcoin reach its all-time high again?
So we can see that there is a possibility that we can see a new Bitcoin all-time high as early as 2023. Nevertheless, we have to realize that we can hardly predict when the new all-time high will come. Although the above factors speak for 2023, the probability of an all-time high is probably only more likely after the halving in 2024.
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