Owotunse Adebayo
In the landscape of cryptocurrency, 2024 emerges as a pivotal year in the United States, marked by crossroads across various dimensions—markets, legal and regulatory frameworks, and the vibrant Web3 startup ecosystem. Widely acknowledged among industry leaders, this year is anticipated to wield substantial influence over the trajectory of crypto, bringing both promise and potential challenges.
United States poised for regulatory clarity
The consensus is that 2024 could stand as one of crypto’s most consequential years in the country, yet the direction it takes remains uncertain. The looming question is whether the anticipated events will propel the industry to new highs or pose threats that might jeopardize its stability. One of the focal points, however, is the expectation of regulatory clarity in the United States—a crucial factor for the industry’s growth. As 2023 draws to a close, attention is fixated on key developments that could significantly expand the industry’s stability and reach.
Yet, all progress hinges on the regulatory permissibility for crypto firms and startups to operate within legal bounds. The historical backdrop includes sporadic enforcement actions and prolonged legal battles, shaping the complex relationship between the American government and the crypto sector. Miller Whitehouse-Levine, the CEO of the crypto lobbying group DeFi Education Fund, foresees 2024 as a year that could finally bring certainty to U.S. crypto regulation. While there has been considerable action, decisive rulings have been elusive.
Key developments and decisions shaping the industry
Whitehouse-Levine anticipates impactful developments in the judiciary and executive branches in the upcoming year. Several major cases are poised to shape the narrative in 2024, ranging from Coinbase’s legal challenge against the SEC’s reluctance to clarify crypto rules to a Supreme Court case potentially curbing federal agencies’ powers. Additionally, the resolution of Ripple’s battle against the SEC over cryptocurrency definitions looms large. Executive agency rules, if enacted in 2024, could have profound implications.
These include an SEC rule broadening the definition of “exchange,” an IRS rule affecting DeFi, and a Treasury Department rule targeting cryptocurrency mixers as national security threats. The spectrum of potential outcomes from these pending decisions is vast. If the IRS proceeds with its “broker” rulemaking and it withstands judicial review, Whitehouse-Levine predicts a collapse of much of the American crypto ecosystem, particularly decentralized systems. Conversely, a victory for Coinbase against the SEC might force Congress to confront the need for regulatory frameworks.
The nature of such legislation, its proponents, opponents, and the intricacies of its passage through a historically dysfunctional Congress remain unpredictable. Whitehouse-Levine acknowledges the challenges of predicting Congressional actions, underscoring the complexity of the regulatory landscape. As the crypto industry eagerly awaits the unfolding events of 2024, the potential consequences underscore the critical need for regulatory clarity. Striking a balance that fosters innovation while addressing legitimate concerns becomes imperative in navigating the evolving crypto landscape.
